Transplant Evidence Alert

The Transplant Evidence Alert provides a monthly overview of the 10 most important new clinical trials in organ transplantation, selected and reviewed by the Peter Morris Centre for Evidence in Transplantation (Oxford University).

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Machine Learning for the Prediction of Red Blood Cell Transfusion in Patients During or After Liver Transplantation Surgery

Front Med (Lausanne). 2021 Feb 22;8:632210 doi: 10.3389/fmed.2021.632210.
Abstract

Aim: This study aimed to use machine learning algorithms to identify critical preoperative variables and predict the red blood cell (RBC) transfusion during or after liver transplantation surgery. Study Design and Methods: A total of 1,193 patients undergoing liver transplantation in three large tertiary hospitals in China were examined. Twenty-four preoperative variables were collected, including essential population characteristics, diagnosis, symptoms, and laboratory parameters. The cohort was randomly split into a train set (70%) and a validation set (30%). The Recursive Feature Elimination and eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithms (XGBOOST) were used to select variables and build machine learning prediction models, respectively. Besides, seven other machine learning models and logistic regression were developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was used to compare the prediction performance of different models. The SHapley Additive exPlanations package was applied to interpret the XGBOOST model. Data from 31 patients at one of the hospitals were prospectively collected for model validation. Results: In this study, 72.1% of patients in the training set and 73.2% in the validation set underwent RBC transfusion during or after the surgery. Nine vital preoperative variables were finally selected, including the presence of portal hypertension, age, hemoglobin, diagnosis, direct bilirubin, activated partial thromboplastin time, globulin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase. The XGBOOST model presented significantly better predictive performance (AUROC: 0.813) than other models and also performed well in the prospective dataset (accuracy: 76.9%). Discussion: A model for predicting RBC transfusion during or after liver transplantation was successfully developed using a machine learning algorithm based on nine preoperative variables, which could guide high-risk patients to take appropriate preventive measures.

CET Conclusion
Reviewer: Mr Simon Knight, Centre for Evidence in Transplantation, Nuffield Department of Surgical Sciences University of Oxford
Conclusion: This interesting study developed and validated machine learning models for the prediction of transfusion requirements during liver transplantation. The authors used a dataset from 3 Chinese transplant centres to develop and validate their models, and subsequently prospectively validated the resulting prediction tool in a small prospective cohort. The best model derived demonstrated good predictive performance and may have utility in predicting transfusion requirements which may help with pre-operative planning and risk stratification. The authors should be commended for making their tool publicly available on the web for other centres to validate, and for their attempts to create explainable models showing the weighting of the various factors in the decision-making process. It will be interesting to see how well the tool validates in other populations with different disease mixes and surgical techniques, and whether benefits can be measured in prospective use.
Study Details
Aims: This study aimed to establish critical preoperative risk factors linked to red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, and to develop and validate machine learning algorithms for predicting the RBC transfusion during or after liver transplantation.
Interventions: The study cohort was randomly divided into two sets: the training set and the validation set.
Participants: 1193 liver transplant patients.
Outcomes: The study identified key risk factors linked to RBC transfusion during or after liver transplantation, and developed an RBC transfusion prediction model using machine learning algorithms.
Follow Up: N/A
Metadata
Funding: Non-industry funding
Publication type: Randomised Controlled Trial
Organ: Liver
Language: English
Author email: aguirong@163.com
MeSH terms: Liver Transplantation